Playoff Watch: What FC Dallas needs from other teams this week

It is starting to be that time of the year. With each passing game, the scoreboard watch around Major League Soccer is starting to feel more important. Because of that, we’re bringing back our annual Playoff Watch series that looks at the clubs around FC Dallas in the standings, their schedules, and what Dallas needs from them in the upcoming week.

Just as a reminder, we’re only going to focus on the teams around FCD in the standings right now. There are teams near the bottom that the Burn have a decent enough lead on in terms of points that I don’t feel like we need to stress over at the moment.

But to be fair, the Western Conference is fairly congested at the moment. We’re going to mostly focus on that top half. If we need to add in a team or remove one from this weekly watch, we’ll adjust accordingly.

Vancouver Whitecaps - 46 points (1st Place)

Schedule (Matches remaining: 10 + Canadian Championship matches): 9/19 at RSL, 9/26 vs DCU, 10/6 at Chicago, 10/10 at LAFC, 10/14 at St. Louis, 10/17 at Austin, 10/24 at Colorado, 10/28 vs San Diego, 11/1 vs Seattle, 11/7 at Montreal

Last week’s result: 2-1 loss at home vs Austin

Notes: Vancouver’s schedule is wild. Aside from games in the Canadian Championship coming up, they’ll spend most of October away from home. Seven of their last 10 MLS games are away from BC Place, which will tell us even more about if this group has another MLS Cup run in them or not.

What FCD needs this week: They’re going against a desperate RSL squad on short rest after playing a midweek Canadian Championship game. A loss would certainly make the race to the top more interesting.

Houston Dynamo - 43 points (2nd Place)

Schedule (Matches remaining: 9): 9/19 vs Cincinnati, 9/26 vs SKC, 10/10 at Minnesota, 10/14 at San Diego, 10/17 vs Dallas, 10/24 vs Minnesota, 10/28 at Seattle, 11/1 at Portland, 11/7 vs St. Louis

Last week’s result: 1-0 loss to San Jose

Notes: As much as it pains me to say it, the Dynamo may have an inside track to the top of the conference with this remaining schedule. The big tests will be those back-to-back games in Cascadia against Seattle and Portland before hosting St. Louis in the season finale.

What FCD needs this week: Obviously, we want them to lose. Houston losing is always what we root for, in any and all matches.

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FC Dallas - 43 points (3rd Place)

Schedule (Matches remaining: 9): 9/19 vs Austin, 9/26 vs LAFC, 10/10 at Charlotte, 10/14 vs Seattle, 10/17 at Houston, 10/24 vs San Jose, 10/28 vs Columbus, 10/31 at SKC, 11/7 vs Colorado

Last week’s result: 2-1 win over Portland

Notes: The home games are nice, with six of the final nine coming at Toyota Stadium. But that October schedule is very congested.

What FCD needs this week: A win over Austin will make it four-straight for the first time in…forever. And it will lock up Copa Tejas for 2026.

San Jose Earthquakes - 41 points (4th Place)

Schedule (Matches remaining: 9): 9/19 vs LAFC, 9/26 vs Portland, 10/10 at Colorado, 10/14 at RSL, 10/17 vs Nashville, 10/24 at Dallas, 10/28 vs Colorado, 10/31 vs RSL, 11/7 at Minnesota

Last week’s result: 1-0 win over Houston

Notes: Getting both RSL and Colorado in home and away games is truly intriguing to me. They’re starting to get healthy again, but I have worries over their defense. Still, you can’t count a Bruce Arena team out too early.

What FCD needs this week: I don’t want to see either them or LAFC pick up full points right now, so a draw is fine.

St. Louis CITY SC - 41 points (5th Place)

Schedule (Matches remaining: 10 + USOC semifinal/final): 9/16 at Colorado (USOC), 9/19 vs Toronto, 9/26 at NY, 10/11 vs LA Galaxy, 10/14 vs Vancouver, 10/17 at Minnesota, 10/24 at RSL, 10/28 vs Portland, 10/31 vs San Diego, 11/7 at Houston

Last week’s result: 4-2 win over Minnesota

Notes: They’re unbeaten in 16 games. 16! Good lord. At some point the streak will end, this kind of schedule does make me think they’ll crash out and come back down to reality before the playoffs.

What FCD needs this week: Let them continue to get draws for all I care. I don’t think they’re going to magically lose the magic they’ve picked up during this streak, but I’m also not expecting them to lose anytime soon either.

LAFC - 40 points (6th Place)

Schedule (Matches remaining: 8): 9/19 at San Jose, 9/26 at Dallas, 10/10 vs Vancouver, 10/14 vs Austin, 10/25 vs LA Galaxy, 11/1 vs Minnesota, 11/4 at NYCFC, 11/7 at Seattle

Last week’s result: 3-1 loss at SKC

Notes: Another weird schedule that sees them on the road a bunch before being home for a four-game stretch, and then wraps up the season with coast-to-coast games on the road. They’ve struggled to find some consistency lately, so this could be a team to watch slide a bit if those road trips catch up to them.

What FCD needs this week: LAFC has one win in their last eight now. They go up to San Jose (for a game Levi’s Stadium), against a San Jose team that may be finding itself again. A draw would be ideal for FCD, we don’t need either side earning full points right now.

Colorado Rapids - 35 points (7th Place)

Schedule (Matches remaining: 10 + USOC semifinal/final): 9/16 vs St. Louis (USOC), 9/19 vs Seattle, 9/26 at LA Galaxy, 10/10 vs San Jose, 10/14 vs Minnesota, 10/17 at Portland, 10/24 vs Vancouver, 10/28 at San Jose, 10/31 vs Chicago, 11/7 at Dallas

Last week’s result: 1-0 win over Montreal

Notes: Do I think the Rapids are a good team right now? No. But given the work they did in the summer transfer window, I have to think they’ll push enough correct buttons to stay in the playoff race here.

What FCD needs this week: Dallas has a decent enough lead over the Rapids right now to not stress too much over them, but I’d be fine with them picking up a couple more losses this week to help create even more distance.

Portland Timbers - 32 points (8th Place)

Schedule (Matches remaining: 9): 9/19 vs Atlanta, 9/26 at San Jose, 10/10 at SKC, 10/14 at LA Galaxy, 10/17 vs Colorado, 10/24 vs Charlotte, 10/28 at St. Louis, 11/1 vs Houston, 11/7 at Austin

Last week’s result: 2-1 loss at Dallas

Notes: Is this going to be a tricky team to beat come playoff time? Yes. Do I think Dallas can still beat them in a three-game series? Absolutely. Still, five of their last nine are on the road and they haven’t exactly figured out how to be consistent away from Providence Park.

What FCD needs this week: Like Colorado, Dallas has enough room over the Timbers not to stress too much right now.

Diving into the Odds

I’ve put together this little simulation machine to see what the odds are for Dallas at the moment. Let’s just say, Dallas is sitting pretty for a good playoff spot and for a higher seed that will host some games.

The clear message for FC Dallas, just keep winning.