We’re getting into the busy part of October in Major League Soccer. Everyone will be dealing with a double-game week, which means points are going to be a premium for all involved.
Only two clubs have locked up a playoff spot (Nashville and Vancouver), which means we could be getting closer for FC Dallas to do the same (more on that below).
Let’s dive into what has happened in recent days and what FC Dallas needs coming up.
Vancouver Whitecaps - 51 points (1st Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 6): 10/14 at St. Louis, 10/17 at Austin, 10/24 at Colorado, 10/28 vs San Diego, 11/1 vs Seattle, 11/7 at Montreal
Last week’s result: Double game week saw the Whitecaps lose at Chicago before picking up a draw against LAFC.
Notes: The draw and a few other results helped Vancouver clinch a playoff spot.
What FCD needs this week: I’d kind of love to see them take down St. Louis, but I don’t think its going to happen.
St. Louis CITY SC - 50 points (2nd Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 7 + USOC final): 10/14 vs Vancouver, 10/17 at Minnesota, 10/21 at Columbus (USOC final), 10/24 at RSL, 10/28 vs Portland, 10/31 vs San Diego, 11/7 at Houston
Last week’s result: Won 6-2 vs LA.
Notes: They absolutely smashed the LA Galaxy on Sunday night. They have three straight double-game weeks coming up, including the USOC Cup final next week. If they continue this up, I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re looking at the top team in the West.
What FCD needs this week: I don’t see them dropping all three points just yet, but man a draw would be nice to see.
FC Dallas - 47 points (3rd Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 6): 10/14 vs Seattle, 10/17 at Houston, 10/24 vs San Jose, 10/28 vs Columbus, 10/31 at SKC, 11/7 vs Colorado
Last week’s result: 3-2 loss at Charlotte
Notes: Really hope the collapse in Charlotte isn’t a sign of things to come this month. Big week ahead to rebound and show it was a one-off.
What FCD needs this week: Double game week, Dallas needs to find a way to get at least four points from this one after the loss last weekend.
San Jose Earthquakes - 46 points (4th Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 6): 10/14 at RSL, 10/17 vs Nashville, 10/24 at Dallas, 10/28 vs Colorado, 10/31 vs RSL, 11/7 at Minnesota
Last week’s result: 1-1 draw at Colorado
Notes: The draw in Colorado did help cool off the Quakes just a bit here. Like everyone else, their double game week is going to be a big one.
What FCD needs this week: Really tough week ahead with a road trip to Utah on Wednesday before hosting the Supporters’ Shield leaders Nashville on Saturday. We need them to continue to drop points.
Houston Dynamo - 45 points (5th Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 6): 10/14 at San Diego, 10/17 vs Dallas, 10/24 vs Minnesota, 10/28 at Seattle, 11/1 at Portland, 11/7 vs St. Louis
Last week’s result: A 2-2 draw in Minnesota.
Notes: I stand by my comment last week of the Dynamo running on fumes. Their draw in Minnesota was a decent response, but this week will be truly telling with the travel and rivalry games.
What FCD needs this week: We always root for a Houston loss. Always.
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LAFC - 42 points (6th Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 5): 10/14 vs Austin, 10/17 at NYCFC, 10/25 vs LA Galaxy, 11/1 vs Minnesota, 11/7 at Seattle
Last week’s result: 1-1 draw against Vancouver
Notes: No major slide after the international break as LAFC is still in the thick of it after this past weekend. They’ve played more games than most around them in the standings, which is probably not ideal at this point.
What FCD needs this week: I wouldn’t be upset with another draw.
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Diving into the Odds
Our playoff machine continues to crunch the numbers. Both on the odds and the magic number needed to get into the playoffs.
Again, I’ll put it out there, if you have any suggestions on how to improve our odds machine below, please comment below and I’ll try my best to work them in.
The Playoff Machine
Ten thousand simulated seasons, run right here in your browser. Every remaining Western Conference game played out on current form and home-field edge, over and over, to see where the chips fall.
playoff odds
Where FC Dallas finishes across every simulated season. Seeds 1–9 make the field; 1–4 host a first-round series.
A model, not a crystal ball. Odds are built from each club’s current points-per-game and home-field advantage, then simulated 10,000 times. It doesn’t know about injuries, suspensions, or a hot streak brewing — so treat it as a smart guess, not gospel. Numbers refresh weekly.
