We knew last week would be a busy one across MLS and it did not disappoint in terms of seeing some movement in the playoff race.
FC Dallas locked up a playoff spot last week, so our focus now shifts to securing a home playoff series by finishing in the top four.
Western Conference Standings
FC Dallas has clinched a 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs berth. The club sits third in the Western Conference with 51 points through 30 matches, level on points with St. Louis, with four matches remaining.
The Big D Soccer Playoff Machine gives FC Dallas a 95% chance of finishing in the top four of the West and hosting a playoff series.
FC Dallas needs 8 more points to clinch a top-four finish.
Standings as of October 19, 2026. Here is the same data from the interactive Playoff Machine above, in table form.
View Western Conference standings as a table
| Rank | Club | Points | GP | Matches left | W-L-T | GD | Playoff status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver | 55 | 30 | 4 | 16-7-7 | +32 | Clinched playoff berth |
| 2 | St. Louis | 51 | 30 | 4 | 14-7-9 | +15 | Clinched playoff berth |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 51 | 30 | 4 | 14-7-9 | +8 | Clinched playoff berth |
| 4 | San Jose | 48 | 30 | 4 | 13-8-9 | +10 | Clinched playoff berth |
| 5 | Houston | 47 | 30 | 4 | 13-9-8 | +2 | Clinched playoff berth |
| 6 | LAFC | 46 | 31 | 3 | 12-9-10 | +15 | In the race |
| 7 | Seattle | 42 | 30 | 4 | 11-10-9 | +2 | In the race |
| 8 | LA Galaxy | 40 | 31 | 3 | 10-11-10 | -9 | In the race |
| 9 | Colorado | 39 | 30 | 4 | 11-13-6 | 0 | In the race |
| 10 | Salt Lake | 36 | 30 | 4 | 10-14-6 | -3 | In the race |
| 11 | Portland | 34 | 30 | 4 | 9-14-7 | -5 | In the race |
| 12 | San Diego | 34 | 30 | 4 | 8-12-10 | -3 | In the race |
| 13 | Minnesota | 34 | 30 | 4 | 8-12-10 | -8 | In the race |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | 30 | 4 | 7-13-10 | -18 | In the race |
| 15 | Kansas City | 22 | 30 | 4 | 6-20-4 | -39 | Eliminated |
Rank follows the official MLS standings. W-L-T is wins, losses, ties. GD is goal difference. Playoff status reflects the official MLS clinch and elimination marks.
Let’s dive into what has happened in recent days and what FC Dallas needs coming up. Again, we're only going to discuss the clubs near or around FC Dallas. There is no need to stress over the clubs that are hovering at the playoff line any more.
Vancouver Whitecaps - 55 points (1st Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 4): 10/24 at Colorado, 10/28 vs San Diego, 11/1 vs Seattle, 11/7 at Montreal
Last week’s result: Picked up a scoreless draw with St. Louis before downing Austin 3-1 over the weekend.
Notes: Back-to-back solid results for the Caps last week. They couldn’t catch up to Nashville in the Shield race, but now their attention is solely on locking up the top spot in the West. Their schedule may be one of the easiest ones out of the top teams in the West.
What FCD needs this week: A loss at Colorado would be great.
St. Louis CITY SC - 51 points (2nd Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 5 + USOC final): 10/21 at Columbus (USOC final), 10/24 at RSL, 10/28 vs Portland, 10/31 vs San Diego, 11/7 at Houston
Last week’s result: Picked up a scoreless draw with Vancouver before ending their now league-record 21 games unbeaten mark in a 3-2 loss at Minnesota.
Notes: The unbeaten run had to come to an end at some point for St. Louis. After going 2-0 up in the first half against the Loons, St. Louis finally ran out of gas. Now they have the important USOC final coming up this week before another Saturday game. If the gas is truly emptying out of the tank, FC Dallas could have a chance to leap them.
What FCD needs this week: Win the USOC, sure, but lose over the weekend at RSL.
FC Dallas - 51 points (3rd Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 4): 10/24 vs San Jose, 10/28 vs Columbus, 10/31 at SKC, 11/7 vs Colorado
Last week’s result: 1-0 win over Seattle before ending their week with a wild 2-2 draw in Houston.
Notes: A four point week against two conference opponents is never an easy schedule, especially when one is a rivalry match. Dallas should have had six points from the week, but the pace is still there to lock up a home playoff spot. A win this weekend will inch them closer.
What FCD needs this week: No double-game week this time around, just a home date with San Jose. Win, baby, win.
San Jose Earthquakes - 48 points (4th Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 4): 10/24 at Dallas, 10/28 vs Colorado, 10/31 vs RSL, 11/7 at Minnesota
Last week’s result: A 1-1 draw with RSL, followed by another draw over the weekend against Supporters’ Shield winners Nashville.
Notes: Two draws kept San Jose within an arm’s length of FC Dallas in the standings. This weekend’s game is a true six-pointer with Dallas.
What FCD needs this week: Obviously, we want to see San Jose lose this week. Duh.
Houston Dynamo - 47 points (5th Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 4): 10/24 vs Minnesota, 10/28 at Seattle, 11/1 at Portland, 11/7 vs St. Louis
Last week’s result: A wild 3-3 draw in San Diego, followed by a wild 2-2 draw with FC Dallas.
Notes: I’m still convinced that this Houston team has run out of gas here in this portion of the season. They were nearly gifted a win against Dallas before letting the lead slip in stoppage time.
What FCD needs this week: We always root for a Houston loss. Always.
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LAFC - 46 points (6th Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 3): 10/25 vs LA Galaxy, 11/1 vs Minnesota, 11/7 at Seattle
Last week’s result: 3-1 win over Austin before a 1-1 draw with LAFC.
Notes: Finally got the monkey off their backs with a win over Austin. The draw against NYCFC over the weekend does help them keep pace for a potential home playoff spot. The lack of games-in-hand is still going to play a factor.
What FCD needs this week: Another loss or draw would be fine.
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Diving into the Odds
I’ve adjusted the playoff machine to reflect those who have clinched a playoff spot. We’re now also looking more at how many points FC Dallas will need to secure one of the top four spots in the West.
The Playoff Machine
Ten thousand simulated seasons, run right here in your browser. Every remaining Western Conference game played out on current form and home-field edge, over and over, to see where the chips fall.
playoff odds
Where FC Dallas finishes across every simulated season. Seeds 1–9 make the field; 1–4 host a first-round series.
A model, not a crystal ball. Odds are built from each club’s current points-per-game and home-field advantage, then simulated 10,000 times. It doesn’t know about injuries, suspensions, or a hot streak brewing — so treat it as a smart guess, not gospel. Numbers refresh weekly.
