The MLS playoff race is getting tighter and tighter in the Western Conference. We had a couple of make-up games last week while most of the league was off for the international break.
We’re still going to focus on the teams near FCD in the standings, Colorado got the boot this week now that double-digit points separate the two clubs. Should things tighten up in October, we’ll bring them (and anyone for that matter) back.
Let’s dive into what has happened in recent days and what FC Dallas needs coming up.
Vancouver Whitecaps - 50 points (1st Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 8): 10/6 at Chicago, 10/10 at LAFC, 10/14 at St. Louis, 10/17 at Austin, 10/24 at Colorado, 10/28 vs San Diego, 11/1 vs Seattle, 11/7 at Montreal
Last week’s result: Off last weekend.
Notes: October is going to be an interesting month to see if they can hold on to this lead in the Western Conference or if someone is going to catch them.
What FCD needs this week: Two games this week, both on the road. Draws wouldn’t be terrible, but a pair of losses would be better.
St. Louis CITY SC - 47 points (2nd Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 7 + USOC final): 10/11 vs LA Galaxy, 10/14 vs Vancouver, 10/17 at Minnesota, 10/21 at Columbus (USOC final), 10/24 at RSL, 10/28 vs Portland, 10/31 vs San Diego, 11/7 at Houston
Last week’s result: Won 3-0 at NY.
Notes: This team just will not lose. I mean, seriously. But this is a very busy October for them. How they handle that USOC final later this month will be telling as to how this group is doing going into the playoffs.
What FCD needs this week: I don’t see them dropping all three points just yet.
FC Dallas - 47 points (3rd Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 7): 10/10 at Charlotte, 10/14 vs Seattle, 10/17 at Houston, 10/24 vs San Jose, 10/28 vs Columbus, 10/31 at SKC, 11/7 vs Colorado
Last week’s result: Off last weekend
Notes: Big month ahead with six games that include two double-game weeks. By our math, Dallas should only be a few points away from securing a playoff spot. Time to get closer to it.
What FCD needs this week: A weird road game after a home-heavy September. Gotta get this month started on the right note with another win.
San Jose Earthquakes - 45 points (4th Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 7): 10/10 at Colorado, 10/14 at RSL, 10/17 vs Nashville, 10/24 at Dallas, 10/28 vs Colorado, 10/31 vs RSL, 11/7 at Minnesota
Last week’s result: Off last weekend.
Notes: I think the Quakes are back to being what we saw out of them earlier this season. That is a dangerous group to deal with heading into the playoffs.
What FCD needs this week: Two road games coming up in the Rocky Mountains. We need another slip up by this group.
Houston Dynamo - 44 points (5th Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 7): 10/10 at Minnesota, 10/14 at San Diego, 10/17 vs Dallas, 10/24 vs Minnesota, 10/28 at Seattle, 11/1 at Portland, 11/7 vs St. Louis
Last week’s result: Off last weekend.
Notes: Part of me thinks this Houston team is running on fumes. The off week from league play will tell us a lot about whether or not that is true.
What FCD needs this week: We always root for a Houston loss. Always.
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LAFC - 41 points (6th Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 6): 10/10 vs Vancouver, 10/14 vs Austin, 10/17 at NYCFC, 10/25 vs LA Galaxy, 11/1 vs Minnesota, 11/7 at Seattle
Last week’s result: Off last weekend.
Notes: Changed coaches over the international break. It will be very interesting to see if they get the interim coach bump or if they continue to slide.
What FCD needs this week: I wouldn’t be upset with another draw.
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Diving into the Odds
Our playoff machine continues to crunch the numbers. Both on the odds and the magic number needed to get into the playoffs.
Again, I’ll put it out there, if you have any suggestions on how to improve our odds machine below, please comment below and I’ll try my best to work them in.
The Playoff Machine
Ten thousand simulated seasons, run right here in your browser. Every remaining Western Conference game played out on current form and home-field edge, over and over, to see where the chips fall.
playoff odds
Where FC Dallas finishes across every simulated season. Seeds 1–9 make the field; 1–4 host a first-round series.
A model, not a crystal ball. Odds are built from each club’s current points-per-game and home-field advantage, then simulated 10,000 times. It doesn’t know about injuries, suspensions, or a hot streak brewing — so treat it as a smart guess, not gospel. Numbers refresh weekly.
