We’ve made it to the final game of the year. The long marathon that is a regular season in Major League Soccer has led us to Decision Day.
This weekend FC Dallas will look to lock up the second-place spot in the Western Conference when they host the Colorado Rapids.
Let’s dive into how they can do that.
Western Conference Standings
FC Dallas has clinched a 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs berth. The club sits second in the Western Conference with 55 points through 33 matches, with three matches remaining.
The Big D Soccer Playoff Machine gives FC Dallas a 99.9% chance of finishing in the top four of the West and hosting a playoff series.
Standings as of November 2, 2026. Here is the same data from the interactive Playoff Machine above, in table form.
View Western Conference standings as a table
| Rank | Club | Points | GP | Matches left | W-L-T | GD | Playoff status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver | 61 | 33 | 1 | 18-8-7 | +38 | Clinched No. 1 seed |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 55 | 33 | 1 | 15-8-10 | +9 | Clinched playoff berth |
| 3 | San Jose | 52 | 33 | 1 | 14-9-10 | +8 | Clinched playoff berth |
| 4 | St. Louis | 51 | 33 | 1 | 14-10-9 | +10 | Clinched playoff berth |
| 5 | Houston | 51 | 33 | 1 | 14-10-9 | +1 | Clinched playoff berth |
| 6 | LAFC | 47 | 33 | 1 | 12-10-11 | +13 | Clinched playoff berth |
| 7 | LA Galaxy | 44 | 33 | 1 | 11-11-11 | -6 | In the race |
| 8 | Portland | 43 | 33 | 1 | 12-14-7 | -1 | In the race |
| 9 | Colorado | 43 | 33 | 1 | 12-14-7 | -1 | In the race |
| 10 | Seattle | 43 | 33 | 1 | 11-12-10 | -3 | In the race |
| 11 | Salt Lake | 42 | 33 | 1 | 12-15-6 | 0 | In the race |
| 12 | Minnesota | 41 | 33 | 1 | 10-12-11 | -4 | In the race |
| 13 | San Diego | 38 | 33 | 1 | 9-13-11 | -5 | Eliminated |
| 14 | Austin | 34 | 33 | 1 | 8-15-10 | -21 | Eliminated |
| 15 | Kansas City | 23 | 33 | 1 | 6-22-5 | -42 | Eliminated |
Rank follows the official MLS standings. W-L-T is wins, losses, ties. GD is goal difference. Playoff status reflects the official MLS clinch and elimination marks.
Let’s dive into what has happened in recent days and what FC Dallas needs coming up. Both Houston and St. Louis fall off this post as they each can no longer pass FC Dallas in the standings.
Vancouver Whitecaps - 61 points (1st Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 1): 11/7 at Montreal
Last week’s result: 4-1 win over San Diego, followed by 5-1 blowout win over Seattle.
Maximum Point Finish: 64
Notes: That little gift that Dallas had last week disappeared quickly when Dallas stumbled and Vancouver did not in the midweek. The Caps locked up the first place spot after FCD left Kansas City with a draw.
What FCD needs this week: They’re not dropping points to Montreal.
FC Dallas - 55 points (2nd Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 1): 11/7 vs Colorado
Last week’s result: A bad 2-0 loss to Columbus, followed by a 1-1 draw in KC.
Maximum Point Finish: 58
Notes: Rough week for Dallas with two fairly flat performances. Columbus showed they’re a better team than their record reflects, while the draw in KC was just rough to watch. They can still finish in the top two, but we really need a better showing out of this group than what we got last week.
What FCD needs this week: Win, baby win. Finish this season strong.
San Jose Earthquakes - 52 points (3rd Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 1): 11/7 at Minnesota
Last week’s result: A 2-2 draw with Colorado, followed up with a 2-1 win over RSL.
Maximum Point Finish: 55
Notes: The win over the weekend keeps them within a shot of catching FC Dallas. They need to win big at Minnesota to have a shot at leaping back into second place.
What FCD needs this week: Keep on dropping points, please.
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Diving into the Odds
I’ve adjusted the playoff machine to reflect those who have clinched a playoff spot. We’re now also looking more at how many points FC Dallas will need to secure one of the top four spots in the West.
The Playoff Machine
Ten thousand simulated seasons, run right here in your browser. Every remaining Western Conference game played out on current form and home-field edge, over and over, to see where the chips fall.
playoff odds
Where FC Dallas finishes across every simulated season. Seeds 1–9 make the field; 1–4 host a first-round series.
A model, not a crystal ball. Odds are built from each club’s current points-per-game and home-field advantage, then simulated 10,000 times. It doesn’t know about injuries, suspensions, or a hot streak brewing — so treat it as a smart guess, not gospel. Numbers refresh weekly.
