After nearly two weeks of matches, the Group Stage is almost done. Starting today, the final games of the Group Stage will begin as teams play their final group match. Once the dust settles this weekend, the World Cup’s knockout bracket will snap into place.
For Dallas Stadium, that means two Round of 32 matches, a Round of 16 match and then eventually a Semifinal epic to round out the games played here during this tournament.
The possibilities for the two Round of 32 games are compelling. Here’s what’s coming, and what still has to shake out.
Round of 32
June 30: Group E Runner-Up vs. Group I Runner-Up (Match 78)
The most likely scenario here: Ivory Coast vs Norway.
After two match days, Germany has clinched Group E with six points and a massive +7 goal differential, meaning Ivory Coast, who are sitting in second place at three points with a neutral goal difference, controls their own destiny heading into Thursday’s finale against Curaçao. Ecuador, level with Curaçao at one point, needs a result against Germany and hopes Ivory Coast slips up. According to The Athletic’s model, Ivory Coast has an 86% probability of finishing second. Barring something genuinely wild, which this group has been at times, the Elephants are in.
On the other side, you have what will be a winner-take-all game in Group I between France and Norway coming up. France holds the edge on goal difference at the moment with a +5 to Norway’s +4.
An Ivory Coast-Norway match would be a massive treat. Seeing Erling Haaland up top against a physically imposing Ivorian back line would be a sight to see.
The long shot: If somehow Ivory Coast slips up and France don’t top Norway, we could be staring at a weird France vs Ecuador kind of match. Seeing the French wouldn’t be the end of the world, but it would be a bit shocking.
Looking for more World Cup, MLS and FC Dallas content? Subscribe today to get our posts directly in your inbox as we publish them.
July 3: Group D Runner-Up vs. Group G Runner-Up (Match 88)
Right now according to The Athletic, it appears we’re on a path to see Australia take on Belgium. But it’s tighter than it looks on paper.
The US have already won Group D, meaning Australia and Paraguay play each other Thursday night for second place. Australia holds the edge thanks to goal differential. It’s roughly a coin flip. Going into the tournament, I would have pegged Turkey over both of these sides, but we saw how that has played out. Now, my gut tells me Australia.
Group G is a bit messier. Egypt leads on four points, with Iran and Belgium level at two points each and New Zealand on one. Belgium was the expected group winners here and could still claim that crown if Egypt slips up in their final game. Belgium has the Kiwis in the final match, while Egypt tackles a tricky Iran side. The Athletic currently has Belgium coming here on 60% odds.
An Australia vs Belgium matchup is genuinely interesting. Both teams have a lot to prove, neither are a juggernaut.
The long shot: There is still a chance we get Paraguay vs Egypt here, too.
Round of 16
Yeah, this is where things get fun and complicated.
The July 6 Round of 16 game at Dallas Stadium takes the winner of Match 83 (Toronto, July 2) against the winner of Match 84 (LA, July 2)
Match 83 (Toronto): Group K runner-up vs Group L runner-up. Currently, The Athletic gives Colombia the edge to come out as the runners-up from Group K, with Portugal still projected to win that group. Their final match will be against one another. On the other side, Group L sees England and Ghana level on four points heading into the Group L finale, with Petar Musa’s Croatia sitting on three points. The odds favor Croatia to come in second in Group L.
Match 84 (LA): Group H winner vs Group J runner-up. Spain is the overwhelming favorite to top Group H, even despite their opening match draw with Cape Verde. From Group J, Argentina has already won their group, leaving Austria and Algeria at three points, with the Central European side ahead on goal differential.
The bracket could be doing a lot of juggling for this July 6 match at Dallas Stadium in the Round of 16. On paper, it looks like we should see Spain take on maybe Portugal. I mean, that would be something else. You could do worse there.
The long shot here: Croatia vs Austria. Yeah, that would be interesting, but not nearly as sexy as a Portugal/Spain game.
Looking for more World Cup, MLS and FC Dallas content? Subscribe today to get our posts directly in your inbox as we publish them.
