FC Dallas have won both of their Leagues Cup matches so far, conceding nothing, and weirdly sit in sixth in the MLS table.
Yeah, and that is also the problem.
The 2026 format takes four MLS clubs into the Knockout Round, and after two matchdays, six MLS teams are level on the maximum six points. Dallas is the last of them on goal differential and goals scored, which means the tidiest resume possible after two games…you know two wins and two clean sheets…has FC Dallas sitting on the wrong side of the line. Other MLS teams that have the same resume have just scored more goals.
That is the ruthless part of the compressed table. Do your job perfectly and you still may miss out on advancing. Wednesday at Toluca wraps up the first phase of the tournament, so let’s dive into what it all means.
1. Six teams, six points, and Dallas is holding the short straw
Here’s the top of the MLS table heading into the final matchday:
Yeah, that is six different clubs on six points. Toss in LAFC and Real Salt Lake just below that and it is a log jam.
For the top six, the separation is entirely goal difference, then goals scored. Dallas sits below Columbus because the Crew have scored two more goals than Dallas has after two matches.
Tiebreakers be damned.
Eric Quill’s club doesn’t have a points problem. No, they have a goals scored problem. Three goals in two games is thrifty, and those clean sheets are indeed real, but this table is tight. A team that brings out 1-0s is the team that could end up missing out on the next round.
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2. Everyone’s played twice, so this is a straight shootout
After two games, there aren’t any lurking teams with games in hand. Everyone has played twice, and most teams have played all home games up. The table will continue to reshuffle until the final matchday. That is going to cut in multiple ways for Dallas.
If we want to break down who could trip up, it gets tricky because everyone plays at home except for Dallas (more on that in a second). The best bet would be Chicago and Austin to drop games in the final matchday. Chicago hosts Cruz Azul, while Austin has to host Club America. I don’t see Charlotte, Cincinnati or Columbus dropping home games to Pachuca, Atlas or Pumas respectively.
The bad news here for Dallas is that they can’t control any of that. Also sitting behind Dallas are LAFC, who host a pretty weak Queretaro FC club. I would lump in RSL into this but they’re dealing with FC Juárez, who are currently the Liga MX leaders in this tournament.
The DAWGS don't quit 🐶 pic.twitter.com/BicIwlrPkA
— FC Dallas (@FCDallas) August 9, 2026
The bottom line is that Dallas will be scoreboard-watching from Tuesday through Thursday. That is unless they take care of the one variable that they do control and slam it shut. Which brings us to Toluca.
3. What a win at Toluca actually does
A win in regulation on Wednesday not only gives Dallas nine full points, it will also be possibly the biggest win in club history. Yeah, playing at Estadio Nemesio Diez, which is arguably the toughest environment in this tournament and picking up a win against the top team from Mexico would be historic.
FC Dallas has won in Mexico before, they were the first MLS team to do it in a competition back when Marvin Chavez scored a game-winner against Pumas in 2011.
But this one would be even bigger.
Toluca sits on three points in this tournament after a win at home over Seattle last week and a late loss to LAFC over the weekend. Unlike the MLS side of the table, the Liga MX side is way more open. Despite the three points, Toluca is in sixth place and could still jump into the top four with a win.
A win here gets you nine points, which should get you into the Knockout Round. But that is where the scoreboard watching comes into play. Dallas needs at least two of the other five unbeaten MLS sides to drop games this week, while also picking up a win against Toluca.
Because here is the trap: there are no draws in Leagues Cup. I mean there are, but not in the traditional sense. If you end 90 minutes level, you go straight to penalty kicks. Win and you earn two points, lose and only earn a single point. So a Dallas side that plays its usually tight, low-event game and grinds to a 0-0 before winning on penalties, puts us right back into the same goal differential scrum that we’re already losing.
But as we know, this game is no gimme. If somehow Dallas finds their attacking boots in this one and holds a shutout in place, the math may disappear.
The Bottom Line
Yes, Dallas could still pull off an historic win on Wednesday and still not advance. In all honesty, that would be a cruel situation for the club. On the other end, if you end up pulling off the win in Toluca and not advance, you end up not having to deal with more games later in the month…which would likely still be on the road.
No matter what, Dallas is in control of its own destiny in the Leagues Cup. Win a third game, shutout or not, and it will have people talking about this team. Hell, even a draw or a decent showing in a loss may still have people talking about this team in a positive light.
Either way, we’re going to be scoreboard-watching a ton this week. Buckle up.
