The MLS playoff race is getting tighter and tighter in the Western Conference. While the league may be off for the international window this week, there is weirdly one game to deal with that will have an impact on the standings below.
We’re still going to focus on the teams near FCD in the standings, Colorado got the boot this week now that double-digit points separate the two clubs. Should things tighten up in October, we’ll bring them (and anyone for that matter) back.
Still, just five points separating 7th place and 13th place.
Let’s dive into what has happened in recent days and what FC Dallas needs coming up.
Vancouver Whitecaps - 50 points (1st Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 8): 10/6 at Chicago, 10/10 at LAFC, 10/14 at St. Louis, 10/17 at Austin, 10/24 at Colorado, 10/28 vs San Diego, 11/1 vs Seattle, 11/7 at Montreal
Last week’s result: A weird 3-3 draw at home against DCU.
Notes: The Whitecaps keep giving up leads and points here. I don't want to say that FC Dallas has a chance now to leap them in the standings, but if they keep this kind of form up into October, anything is possible.
What FCD needs this week: Like FCD, they're off this week but will return for a make-up game at Chicago next Wednesday. If Chicago can pull the upset there, I’d be all for it.
FC Dallas - 47 points (2nd Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 7): 10/10 at Charlotte, 10/14 vs Seattle, 10/17 at Houston, 10/24 vs San Jose, 10/28 vs Columbus, 10/31 at SKC, 11/7 vs Colorado
Last week’s result: 1-0 vs LAFC
Notes: The gritty result against LAFC was great to see. The team is mostly healthy going into the final month of play and there are still plenty of games for Petar Musa to get his next goal and break the club's all-time single season goal scoring record.
What FCD needs this week: Off this week, time to rest up before a very busy month of October.
San Jose Earthquakes - 45 points (3rd Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 7): 10/10 at Colorado, 10/14 at RSL, 10/17 vs Nashville, 10/24 at Dallas, 10/28 vs Colorado, 10/31 vs RSL, 11/7 at Minnesota
Last week’s result: 3-1 win vs Portland
Notes: The result against Portland was a big one for the Quakes. They're finding their form again. That late October game in Frisco could end up being a big decider for what seed each team gets. Four games on the road to close out the season is going to be tough, though.
What FCD needs this week: They're off this week.
Houston Dynamo - 44 points (4th Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 7): 10/10 at Minnesota, 10/14 at San Diego, 10/17 vs Dallas, 10/24 vs Minnesota, 10/28 at Seattle, 11/1 at Portland, 11/7 vs St. Louis
Last week’s result: 2-0 loss vs SKC.
Notes: Not sure what happened to them at home against SKC this past weekend, but we will take it.
What FCD needs this week: They're off this week.
St. Louis CITY SC - 44 points (5th Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 9 + USOC final): 9/30 at NY, 10/11 vs LA Galaxy, 10/14 vs Vancouver, 10/17 at Minnesota, 10/21 at Columbus (USOC final), 10/24 at RSL, 10/28 vs Portland, 10/31 vs San Diego, 11/7 at Houston
Last week’s result: Game in NY got postponed due to weather. It will be made up on September 30.
Notes: Their game over the weekend got delayed due to weather, they'll now make it up tonight. Weird travel and a huge month ahead will be very interesting to see how this group handles it all. They've been damn good over the last two months of play.
What FCD needs this week: This would be an excellent time to see their streak come to an end.
Stay on top of every FC Dallas move this season. Free subscribers get breaking news straight to their inbox — no algorithm, no noise.
LAFC - 41 points (6th Place)
Schedule (Matches remaining: 6): 10/10 vs Vancouver, 10/14 vs Austin, 10/17 at NYCFC, 10/25 vs LA Galaxy, 11/1 vs Minnesota, 11/7 at Seattle
Last week’s result: 1-0 loss at FCD.
Notes: The loss at Dallas ended the Marc Dos Santos era in LA. Back-to-back seasons where a team has come to Frisco, lost and then fired their manager the next day (SKC was the last one to do it in 2025). Three of four at home in October will determine whether or not this team can rebound under a new interim manager.
What FCD needs this week: They're off this week, which is probably good for them all things considering.
This story is available for free to everyone, no subscription required. If you’d like to support us but don’t want to commit to a full subscription, you can leave us a tip of any amount (this helps keep our coffee/beer mugs full).
Diving into the Odds
I've gone through our Playoff Machine and worked in some possible magic numbers for when FC Dallas could clinch a playoff spot.
It is AI-driven so there is a margin of error with those point tallies for FC Dallas. But, this should give us a decent idea of exactly how close the club is to locking up a playoff spot here as we get into October.
The points needed shows that its as simple as two wins or a mix of wins and results going their way.
Again, I’ll put it out there, if you have any suggestions on how to improve our odds machine below, please comment below and I’ll try my best to work them in.
The Playoff Machine
Ten thousand simulated seasons, run right here in your browser. Every remaining Western Conference game played out on current form and home-field edge, over and over, to see where the chips fall.
playoff odds
Where FC Dallas finishes across every simulated season. Seeds 1–9 make the field; 1–4 host a first-round series.
A model, not a crystal ball. Odds are built from each club’s current points-per-game and home-field advantage, then simulated 10,000 times. It doesn’t know about injuries, suspensions, or a hot streak brewing — so treat it as a smart guess, not gospel. Numbers refresh weekly.
