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USMNT’s World Cup Path Revealed: A Manageable Draw… With One Big Wildcard

The World Cup groups are set and the USMNT landed Australia, Paraguay, and a TBD European playoff team. Here’s why this draw is equal parts opportunity, chaos, and “please don’t let the playoff winner be that team.”

Photo by John Dorton/ISI Photos/USSF/Getty Images
Photo by John Dorton/ISI Photos/USSF/Getty Images

Following an hour of what could easily be described as something that could have been ignored (I mean, what was that Robbie Williams’ song?), the FIFA World Cup draw for the 2026 tournament final took place.

As expected, the United States were drawn into Group D. Joining them are Australia, Paraguay, and a yet to be determined European team (the winner of Kosovo, Turkey, Slovakia, and Romania).

The European winner will be determined next March.

When and Where the US will play

The tournament will get started on June 12 in Los Angeles, when the US hosts Paraguay. The US will then head north to Seattle for a June 19 matchup with Australia at Lumen Field. It will then go back to Southern California for the group finale against the unknown European team on June 25.

Date Opponent Location Stadium
June 12 Paraguay Los Angeles SoFi Stadium
June 19 Australia Seattle, WA Lumen Field
June 25 European Playoff Winner Los Angeles SoFi Stadium

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About Group D

Whoever ran the USMNT’s 2025 schedule did themselves a nice one with this draw. The US beat Australia back in October 2-1, and most recently, they defeated Paraguay 2-1 during the November window. Should Turkey emerge from the European bracket, that is another team the US faced this past year, though it was a 2-1 loss.

In terms of FIFA rankings (take with a grain of salt), the Australians were the lowest-ranked team in Pot 2, and represented a favorable draw for the hosts. Paraguay was rated in the middle of Pot 3.

After the US drew those two teams, they were guaranteed to draw a European playoff team from Pot 4.

In the European playoff, Turkey will face Romania in one semifinal, while Slovakia and Kosovo would play in the other. The winners will meet in a playoff final, and the winner of that final will take the final spot in Group D.

Turkey is the highest rated team out of that group, at number 15, while the other three are sitting below the top 40 teams. If Turkey fails to make the group, the US will likely end up with the weakest group of the tournament, in terms of ratings.

Drew Epperley

Drew Epperley

Owner and Managing Editor of Big D Soccer. I’ve been covering MLS and FC Dallas since 2007. Part time nut. ⚽ fan. ☕️ & 🍺 drinker.

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