Copa Tejas is tomorrow night in Frisco as FC Dallas hosts Austin FC at Toyota Stadium. A win by FC Dallas will help push them up the MLS Western Conference standings and give them a shot at the Copa Tejas trophy in 2024.
Today, we’re previewing the game with our pal Phil West from the Austin blog Verde All Day again. Some of you know the setup by now in these pieces; we asked three questions to get a better sense of the club FC Dallas is going to take on this weekend. Below are my questions to Phil with his responses. My answers to his questions will appear on his site later today.
BDS: The Austin defense has been pretty stout lately, with three shutouts in a row, including two away from home. What has changed in the Austin defense from earlier in the season?
VAD: I don't know that anything has changed per se in their approach. It just appears that the principles they've been emphasizing since the preseason are finally starting to click in an appreciable way, and they're now showing up as clean sheets. Head coach Josh Wolff's definitely putting more emphasis on defense since a hard-luck 2023 in which Verde let in a lot of goals, rotated a lot of players in and out of the back line due to injuries, and lost one promising center back who was only in Austin for three months ... because his wife didn't like living in Austin. (That was a rumor that started online but that Wolff basically confirmed in a press conference. Last year was a hot mess for Austin, y'all.)
One thing that's occurred over the last seven matches that's improved the defense is ... Brendan Hines-Ike starts! The center back, playing with D.C. United before he got cut in a massive offseason roster purge even bigger than Austin's, has been fantastic. Verde's now in the unusual position of having four healthy functioning actual center backs (including Matt Hedges, not to rub that in) to choose from in any given match. Put any two of them in front of Brad Stuver, and you have the start of a solid spine.
BDS: You talked the other day about how Austin is 'overperforming' this season. Why is that exactly, and are they on a path to improving those metrics?
VAD: The article in question comes from an American Soccer Analysis drill down on xPoints and how Austin's overperforming its xPoints by a wild margin, far more of an outlier than anyone in the league.
But, if you've seen them play of late, there are actually really good explanations for this. On offense, they've only scored 14 goals (and, yes, I know y'all have only scored 10, and you'd gladly take our 14), but that's come on just 29 shots on goal, which is absurd efficiency. It's concerning that the offense is getting off so few shots on goal, but they're making them count. We're also beginning to see, especially in the recent win over the Galaxy, some really good interplay between Sebastián Driussi, Diego Rubio, and (to bring up another sore subject) Jáder Obrian. We're seeing less of the "take it down the wing, hoof in a cross, and hope" approach, which hasn't really been working.
On defense, teams are getting a lot of shots to accumulate xG, but as happened with Vancouver last week, it's generally a lot of low-percentage shots thanks to the work the defense is doing. And, if an offense facing Verde gets a shot on frame, Stuver's there, and he currently leads the league with 54 saves.
Is this sustainable? Especially without getting some appreciable summer reinforcements? I'm a little skeptical about it, but I wouldn't be surprised if they grit and grind out results and will themselves to the playoffs even if they don't get the DP attacker they still desperately need, be it a true striker (with Rubio shifting into a creative role), a true No. 10 (which they'd have to weld into the lineup somehow), or a playmaking winger (yes, please).
BDS: Like Dallas, Austin plays Houston next week (you on Wednesday, us on Saturday). How does Josh Wolff prepare his team for back-to-back rivalry games like this?
VAD: Well, he made it very clear in Thursday's press conference that not only is he taking this one match at a time, but he's taking Dallas very seriously, and there's absolutely no reason to think that Nico Estevez and his squad will be pushovers. In fact, he took umbrage to a question about whether Wolff might shift from what's been a more conservative road match approach, where one point per match is an acceptable clip, to go for all three points against FCD. Again, this could totally be a media-aided smokescreen, but if they play as they've played on the road lately, expect Dallas to be given a lot of the ball and to meet with a lot of defending.
Also, while Wolff's been faulted by fans for not caring enough about Copa Tejas, the players definitely care.
Thanks again to Phil for taking the time to answer some questions. Be sure to give him a follow or subscribe to his work by clicking the button below.
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