What are the odds? Examining FC Dallas' playoff chances ahead of MLS season restart

FC Dallas has some work to do here as the playoff push begins.

Drew Epperley

Aug 15, 2023

As the Major League Soccer season is a couple of weeks away from returning to action, the odds makers out there have begun releasing their latest numbers before the playoff push begins.

I like looking at both the money odds and what the number gurus see as a potential projection for FC Dallas. So we’ll be looking at those two things today.

A look at the non-money

Let’s start with those who don’t cover the money side. My go-to is usually FiveThirtyEight, as they give percentages on who they think will win each week, along with projections for playoffs and MLS Cup.

This is how they saw things back at the beginning of the season.

So, that is fifth in the West for those keeping scores at home. But the projected point total isn’t a wide margin by their estimates between the second and fifth.

Here is a gander at things at the beginning of the summer, right when FC Dallas was in the middle of their summer slump:

In terms of positioning, better, but hard to take that one with much more than a grain of salt. I do wonder if 538 is done posting these sorts of things after their staff was let go by Disney earlier this year

Another good go-to site on the non-money side of things is SportsClubStats.com. This site has been around for ages and does a lot of simulations on how teams could end up finishing each year.

Right now, their models show FC Dallas has a 77% chance to make the playoffs. Here is a look at their latest projections based on each potential point total for FC Dallas.

With 11 games to go, it is safe to say that FC Dallas needs to find a way to get at least 15-18 points. According to these projections, anything above 18 points should be a guarantee to get into the playoffs. Anything less than 15 points means we need a lot of other teams struggling down the stretch.

It should be noted that player injuries and things of that nature are not calculated into these projections.

What about the money?

For the money side of things, I tend to look at BetOnline’s numbers. Part of that may be due to the fact that they tend to email me their latest odds for potentially appearing in posts like this or for the fact that I’ve been reading their stuff for years now.

Here are their latest odds, including how things looked earlier this year.

Let’s ignore that first column in white. It’s kind of garbage at this point, coming off the heels of the 2022 season. FC Dallas had decent odds back in June, though but have since been downgraded (it’s why they’re in red)

FC Dallas has the sixth-best odds in the Western Conference. Somehow this has Austin with better odds than FCD and Real Salt Lake. I don’t buy that for a second.

Again, let’s take all of this with a giant grain of salt. Inter Miami is currently in last place in MLS and has better odds now with Lionel Messi and company on the roster. The better Miami does in the Leagues Cup, the more likely those odds will continue to improve for them.

I know there are a slew of other providers out there. The league has partnered with Dimers.com, which does a good job of collecting all of the various betting sites out there that do MLS betting online.

Still, I feel it is appropriate to include this little gif to explain how I feel about these sorts of things:

It is all a grain of salt kind of thing but the closer we get to the playoffs, the more these projections and odds will be a little more intriguing to watch.

What do you make of FC Dallas’ latest odds across these places? Does anything stick out to you about it? Let’s discuss it below.

https://www.niemanlab.org/2023/04/disney-is-shrinking-fivethirtyeight-and-nate-silver-and-his-models-are-leaving/

Need a 101 on sports betting? Check out this handy article from the league’s website: https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/how-to-bet