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July Outlook: Will a home-heavy schedule help FC Dallas?

After a rough few weeks, FC Dallas may be in the need of some home cooking.

MLS: FC Dallas at Austin FC Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

FC Dallas enters the month of July in a bit of a rut. They’ve lost four out of their last six games and haven’t really looked like the team that was picking up wins earlier in the season. But there may be help around the corner here as a very friendly home slate of games is on the horizon this month.

Here is a breakdown of the six games on the schedule in July.

Inter Miami - Home - July 4

First up is our annual Fourth of July bash. This time around we welcome in one of the league’s newer clubs, Inter Miami. The Herons sit just outside the Eastern Conference playoff picture at the home. Thankfully their road form this season has been a pretty dreadful one, going 1-5-1 with the lone win coming at Seattle during their CCL run. Still, this is probably a must-win type of game to get things back on track if there ever was one.

Houston Dynamo - away - July 9

The second round of the Texas Derby comes pretty quickly here next weekend. Houston will be welcoming in new star Hector Herrerra to their lineup for the first time and you have to think they are hoping he amps up their chances at returning to the playoffs. After a decent start to the season, the Dynamo have been relatively shaky in the last two months of play, losing seven of their last ten games.

NYCFC - home - July 13

The defending MLS Cup Champions come into town the following week on a midweek night. While they’ve gone through a coaching change this season, the Pigeons continue to look like a contender out of the East. This could be a tough game given how good their defense is (currently the second-best in MLS in terms of goals given up).

Austin FC - home - July 16

We could see Copa Tejas wrapped up this month as well, should FC Dallas take care of business in Houston, this one could be the game that decides the 2022 state crown. We know a bit more about how this Austin team likes to press and as of right now, we also know they’re no slouch on the road this season, going 5-3-1.

Real Salt Lake - away - July 23

The last home game in July will also be against another tough team in the Western Conference playoff race. RSL has been a huge surprise to folks this season despite not having any real big named stars on their roster. Pablo Mastroeni has assembled a team that is currently unbeaten at home in 2022 as well.

LA Galaxy - home - July 30

Last and certainly not least, is a visit from the Galaxy to round out the month. Currently, the Galaxy are in the playoff picture but you wouldn’t know it by their latest form. They’ve only picked up two wins (both against Austin) in their last eight games. Their DPs aren’t exactly lighting things up either. Chicharito has just two goals in his last 11 games (including USOC matches).

Outlook

There are six games on the table, that’s 18 overall points up for grabs. And with four games at home, that is 12 points you almost have to pick up here.

But with how things have gone as of late, it almost feels like 12 points may be a bit much for this group in July. At first glance, I thought that 11 was doable but eight may be more likely. I may be a bit pessimistic in looking at things right now though given that the defense has been extremely leaky in the last few games.

If somehow Nico Estevez can find a way to get the defensive group back to their early season form and the attack led by Jesus Ferreria and Paul Arriola continue to remain hot, then 12 or even 15 points seems doable.

That is a lot of big ‘ifs’ though.

Also, the Copa Tejas and Texas Derby crowns are up for grabs this month. At a minimum, you gotta clinch those.

What point total do you think is realistic in July? Let’s discuss that below.