Once again, MLS is AWOL on the Disciplinary Report this week with games kicking off today. Like last time, I am going to do the dirty work for players whose teams have 2 matches this round. Check the comments for further updates for surprise suspensions and what not.
Atlanta (at FCD, at Philadelphia):
Atlanta was dominant at home this weekend, but they’ve got 2 games on the road this week against Dallas (hot weather and an extra day of rest) and Philadelphia (normal rest). Oddly enough, they have a better record on the road than at home this year, so I bet FOMO will be a theme this week if you want to fade.
Pick to click: Almirón. Everyone’s doing it. You might as well be just picking 10 DGWs this round. That said, I’ll spice up my life by making him a switcheroo play. Only 3 rounds left before they start giving out prizes, so it’s worth a shot.
FC Dallas (ATL, at RSL)
No disciplinary concerns here, but how the hell is the team going to score without Mauro Diaz? Well, the 4th July in Frisco is magic (FCD is undefeated in 9 matches on the 4th), and the defense has given up the 2nd fewest goals in the league this year. Which kind of spoils my...
Pick to click: Matt Hedges. Hedges is actually a sneaky captain pick this week. He’s going to rack up some bonus points and play twice. Throw in a clean sheet and a goal, and you’re staring at a 20 point week pretty easily. You’re also pretty likely to get 2x from Cannon and Gonzalez this week, so FCD might be your best bet for stocking your back line.
Houston Dynamo (LAFC, Minnesota)
Houston has a couple of big hitters on the disciplinary report with both Tomás Martinez and Alberth Elis one game away from a yellow card suspension. The fixtures, however, are very juicy with 2 home games on the docket- LAFC, who is playing on really short rest, and Minnesota, who’ll be on their 3rd game in 10 days. Houston had last week off, so they should be ready to go and will likely have Adolfo Machado available to shore up the defense.
Pick to click: Romell Quioto. I know he’ll get 2 games, and he also takes some set pieces for Houston. Games within the conference tend to have more yellow cards, so I’m mildly terrified about Martinez and Elis. Getting Houston right this week may be the key to your finish; pair Quito with the Houston defense.
LA Galaxy (DCU, Columbus Crew)
The Gals play two at Stubhub and have no disciplinary issues. They have done an awful job of defending their home turf this year
Pick to click: Zlatan Ibrahimovic. The concerns about playing two are legitimate; Ibra has a ton of mileage on his tires. However, he’s probably your best bet for multiple goals this week even playing 90 and 30. The play I like this week is having a midfield scrub for the sub in case he doesn’t start Wednesday. If he doesn’t start and you get nervous about it, swap your mid scrub for a forward scrub and start Alessandrini.
LAFC (at Houston, Orlando City)
LAFC has no suspension worries, but that opening match against Houston is absolutely brutal on short rest, in the heat, and with the Dynamo fully rested. If you’re playing this, you’re playing for the weekend against a rested and a newly minted coach- no thanks.
Pick to click: Uhh. LA should have Marco Ureña back and could possibly have Vela back. I think there’s some rotation risk here, so if I have to pick one, I’m going Ciman on the chance he blasts in another free kick. I’m fading Diomande; that has trap written all over it.
Minnesota (Toronto, at Houston)
Schuller and Calvo both miss out on the 2nd leg if they see yellow against Toronto. I strongly suggest you avoid both of these players whom you were avoiding already.
Pick to click: Darwin Quintero. Quintero has adapted well and is easily the most dangerous attacker for the Loons. He’s also been fit and durable starting every game since he transferred and playing 90 in all but 3 of those 11 games. If you’re going with 3 forwards this week, he’s definitely in the conversation- neither Toronto nor Houston’s defense are particularly scary.
Real Salt Lake (SKC, FCD)
RSL is another team with 2 home games this week, but both are tough matchups. RSL has been good at home with 3 of their 4 shutouts on the season taking place at Rio Tinto. That said, if you’re thinking about going cheap and using Marcelo Silva, he’s one yellow away from suspension. The same is true for Beckerman in case you were considering the enticing combination of a low floor and a low ceiling.
Pick to click: Albert Rusnak. The matchups are tough and betting clean sheets are tricky. With the home field, Rusnak’s floor is probably around 10 this week. Go with the young legs here.
TFC (at Min, at SKC)
A year ago you’d be a fool to avoid Toronto on a DGW, but this year...wew! At least there’s no one on suspension.
Pick to click: Michael Bradley. This is your high floor pick if you need it. Giovinco is probably off penalties. Vazquez probably isn’t starting twice. This could be the week a talented team breaks out. I won’t be the guy betting on that.
Colorado (SEA, at MTL)
Danny Wilson and Jack Price are both suspended for the 1st game. Johan Blomberg and Edgar Castillo will both be suspended with their next card. They do have a home game to start and Badji’s fresh. Also, they’ve won TWO in a row. WOW!
Pick to click: Avoid. I’m not even bothering to throw a dart on this one. You’re on your own if you want Crapids this week.
Seattle (at COL, at NER)
Double game week on the road for a brutal team is a red flag, so you’re not even worrying about Nouho Tolo’s suspension or Ozzie Alonso and Cristian Roldan being suspended with a yellow on the 4th. That said, I can think of at least one...
Pick to click: Nicolas Lodeiro. Lodeiro had been pushed back in the formation in recent games, but is now back as an attacker. Lodeiro has also shown himself to be an iron man and is a bonus point machine. Ignore the two road games here; Lodeiro’s almost in Almiron territory this week.
SKC (at RSL, TOR)
Your only suspension worry is Roger Espinoza, so the sexy names are all on the table. The matchups aren’t too daunting either; you can go all Spork or no Spork and everything in between.
Pick to click: Daniel Salloi. There’s plenty to choose from, but Salloi seems to have the highest ceiling. Prior to the Montreal game, he’d been averaging 4 shots per game over the last 8. Are teams starting to focus on Salloi? Maybe, but they can’t go too overboard, and he seems a sure bet to go long in both matches this week.
Oh, and before I forget- Gambling*!
Hou -1 +160 (note: The handicap is Hou -0.5, but I’m giving the extra half for better odds)
RSL Pick -130
FCD Pick -145
Sea Pick +130
Galaxy -1 +105
Previous weeks’ picks: 4-1-1 Season: 15-10-2
Good luck, fellow degenerates.
*- Odds courtesy of Bovada. For Entertainment Purposes Only! But not for much longer...