clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Three things to watch for against San Jose Earthquakes

What do numbers tell us about Saturday’s match-up?

MLS: FC Dallas at San Jose Earthquakes John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

FC Dallas hosts the San Jose Earthquakes for the first time this season. They’re looking to get some revenge after the Quakes came from behind to get a draw in their previous meeting.

Earthquakes’ late game magic

They’ve done it against the Seattle Sounders, FC Dallas, and Orlando City; San Jose are fantastic at finding points when they aren’t there. All three matches found SJ clawing back into the match with late goals.

The Earthquakes have shown that they can hang in the game with tough opponents. Dallas need to have a killer instinct this game and not allow them to control possession when searching for a goal like they did in their first meeting. No one wants to see Dallas defend against 26 crosses again, no matter how poor they are, defending against crosses is a dangerous game. One miscommunication or poor clearance could be devastating, it’s important for Dallas to minimize SJ’s chances better than they did last meeting.

Expected goals tell a scary story

No one here at BDS will tell you that expected goals are gospel, but they’re at least interesting to look at. In the last meeting San Jose had an expected 1.55 goals, while Dallas mustered 0.98. Both teams drew, but it shows that San Jose had the better chances. Looking into seasonal xG differential can give us a look into whether or not a team got the result they deserved (or expected). San Jose boast a 4.28 xG differential, meaning they were expected to score 4.28 more goals than they were expected to concede. The fact that their actual goal differential is zero means they’ve been unlucky, or maybe it says that they haven’t been able to put away chances they should. Looking at Dallas’ xG differential, they’ve only been better team by 0.66 goals this season. Maybe the numbers hint that the tides are about to turn for both teams.

Numbers

  • Chris Wondolowski has scored the Quake’s last three goals, and scored or assisted their last seven goals.
  • Maximilliano Urruti has a goal or assist in his last three games
  • The Earthquakes have not beaten Dallas in eight consecutive matches
  • San Jose have not beat FC Dallas at Toyota Stadium since 2014
  • Wondolowski is averaging one goal every 342 minutes against FCD
  • Oscar Pareja is 4-7-4 against Dominic Kinnear