FanPost

Looking at playoffs and a 10-5-4 finish

Over on this post earlier, fennsk1 noted that we currently have 2.1% odds of making the playoffs. Awesome! But he did work out that a 10-5-4 record the rest of the way, quite nice albeit wishful thinking, would likely land us in the playoffs at 80.9% odds.

I looked at both the schedule as well as the teams/games apart from that to make some predictions and thoughts. Each area should provide you with an idea of what it could look like. This is with the 10-5-4 in mind. Above all we need wins. Draws won't get us anywhere. I also tried to use as many rational assumptions as possible!

*Note - I apologize if this is ridiculously confusing or unorganized. I just laid it out the way that is most visible to me

GAMES VS TEAM - OUTCOME:
3 vs CHV (2 home, 1 away) - must win 2
3 vs SJ (1 home, 2 away) - going with a 1-1-1
2 vs LAG (home and away) - must win 1 (sweepable? will they wake up?)
2 vs VAN (home and away) - must win 1 (sweepable?)
2 vs POR (home and away) - win 2 (sweepable)
2 vs COL (home and away) - must win 1
2 vs SEA (home and away) - avoid 2 L's, go 0-1-1
1 vs TOR (home) - must win
1 vs HOU (away) - kind of a must win to get the party started
1 vs RSL (away) - Loss
------------------------------
SCHEDULE:

June:
6/16 - @HOU - W
6/23 - CHV - W
(2-0-0 for the month)

July:
7/04 - TOR - W
7/07 - SJ - D
7/14 - @COL - L (begin 3 matches in 7 days, 2 of 3 on the road)
7/18 - @SJ - L
7/21 - POR - W
7/28 - LAG - W
(3-2-1 for the month)

Aug:
8/05 - @POR - W
8/11 - COL - W (begin 3 matches in 7 days, 2 of 3 on the road)
8/15 - @VAN - D
8/18 - @RSL - L
8/26 - @LAG - L
(2-2-1 for the month)

Sept:
9/02 - SEA - D
9/15 - VAN - W
9/29 - @SJ - W
(2-0-1 for the month)

Oct:
10/07 - @CHV - D
10/21 - @SEA - L
10/28 - CHV - W
(1-1-1 for the month)

ANALYSIS: (only looking at 10 wins)
The Low-Hanging Fruit - 6 wins: 2 wins each from CHV and POR and wins against HOU, TOR help get us on the way to 10. I don't think any of that is too much of a reach.

Splitsville - 3 wins: Simply must win 1 game from COL, LAG and VAN. None are cream of the crop. We play each of these teams two times, home and away.

The Hanging Chad - 1 win: Where oh where will this come from? Going 1-1-1 versus SJ? Picking up one from SEA? Sweeping VAN or LAG? Who knows...

Draws and Losses: My brain hurts now.
------------------------------
CONCLUSION:

Is 10-5-4 a stretch? It probably is, but I think we'd all agree if we're healthy, happy and a bit lucky, it could happen. Hopefully this look will allow yourself to fall into one of the camps.

I suppose I'm hoping a team we haven't seen all season (and really not much of last season either) comes to fruition. Can we expect to see something that we don't know what it even looks like?

According to this, can we come out of the gate and win 3 straight? Can we win 4 in a row vs. POR, LA, @POR, COL? Obviously this is all pure speculation. As things go, we'll lose 2 to POR and CHV and sweep LAG, beat RSL and take 1 from SEA. You know how it goes. According to this, starting with @VAN on 8/15, that's a 3-3-3 record to close out the season. Hardly an unimaginable apex.

If we do get to 10-5-4, it would have to look something like this, I'd imagine.

Please feel free to post your own schemes or W-L-D records. I am the furthest thing from a professional sports analyst, mostly just a guy killing time at work and wanting (hoping) to see some better futbol.

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